How Retailers Are Using AI And Machine-Learning To Improve The Success Of Products On Supermarket Shelves

Of all the new products that make their way on to your supermarket shelves, only five percent are successful, a UK-based company is looking at ways to change that

10 March 2025

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Photo Credit: Virtual Store Trials

“Toilet rolls, beer, cleaning wipes,” lists Nick Theodore, founder of Virtual Store Trials, “we really deal with all the sexy products,” he says with a laugh.

Be that as it may, it is intriguing how something that seems as simple as where a product goes on a shelf in a supermarket is in fact the product of data that has been processed through machine-learning and analysis for maximum profitability and success.

“95 per cent of new products that go into a grocery store fail within the first two years,” says Nick, emphasising the general difficulties retailers face. “With all the data that exists out there, we should be doing a better job than a five percent success rate. So our main agenda is how can we get even more data organized in the right way to help brands make those decisions that improve success rates when you launch something in stores?”

Started in 2017, UK-based Virtual Store Trials was an idea that came from an expertise in retail, data analytics and supermarkets. Now it is the only company specialising in using shelf-data for supermarkets and FMCG clients to improve their sales.

Nick Theodore, founder of Virtual Store Trials | Photo Credit: Virtual Store Trials

Some of the questions that Virtual Store Trials can answer through this process include what would happen if you change a product’s position on the shelf, making it more proactive and useful for clients. “It’s a test and learn phase,” explains Nick. “So we actually create these virtual stores that allow us to test in front of real respondents. So I can send you a link and say, this is what your local store looks like at the moment, conduct your shop with that or I can send you a link and say, hey, this has been changed, how does that work for you? Then we see how you would interact with that set of shelves versus the original and would you spend more, spend less and do that with a couple of 1,000 shoppers as well.”

The store layout is based on a blueprint of the story, called a planogram | Photo Credit: Virtual Store Trials

Some of the brands that Virtual Store Trials works with includes Tesco, who they partnered with at the start of the pandemic. “This was a crazy time because visibility of stores was really difficult. The major change (we were seeing) was actually on cleaning wipes, which were selling out immediately. So we posited; ‘What would happen if we doubled the amount of space that goes to these cleaning wipes?’ Ultimately that taking away space from other, more established, cleaning products, which could be bad. But when we actually tested this, it was really successful. When it was launched in-store, the increase in sales value across the industry was around £110m in the year that followed.”

Another area that the company has gleaned interesting insights from is beer and alcohol. “Non-alcoholic beer is massively growing – but the question is, should it be grouped as a separate entity in non-alcohol, low alcohol beer? Or should it be integrated within its parent brand?” says Nick, “The biggest non-alcoholic beer in the world is Heineken zero. Should it be sat next to Heineken or separated into the low-no alcohol section? Across the markets in the UK and Netherlands, we have noticed that, if you want to increase the penetration of non-alcoholic beer, you put it in with the parent brands. If you want to keep it as a separate shopping mission for someone who might want a beer but doesn’t want any alcohol. You have it in a separate section. So essentially, you’re going to get fewer people going to the non-alcohol section of the supermarket aisle. However, if you want to actually want to improve how many people are buying non-alcohol beers, you include it just as a standard beer. This also applies to meat and vegan alternatives.”

While the company’s success and impact has been heartening, Nick notes that it is disappointing that technology has yet to catch up with the industry.  “While on the software side there’s a lot of people doing cool things, a lot of the foundational infrastructure has stayed the same. The most popular planogram software globally is very much a legacy piece of software which was developed in 1992 – and we’ve got engineers that are born in 2000. So the idea of software being eight years older than them is baffling to me.”

Virtual Store Trials is currently looking at developing a software update, but the issue is disrupting the retailers and clients who are currently using it. But Nick notes, “Retailers are constantly dealing with complicated datasets. Everything from e-commerce, to quick commerce, and the amount of changes that need to be made just to keep up with shopper demands. Factor like supply chain issues, not being able to get ingredients due to war, climate surprises, global pandemics, whilst still having the responsibility to keep everybody fed.” He notes that the growth of AI is a positive for the industry, with a general view that it can help retail move faster.

One of the biggest changes Nick and his team have also noticed recently is that shoppers have very much become price and value oriented. “In the UK, 58 pe rcent of shoppers who arrive at a store to buy a product they are looking for, will not necessarily start with the product they would normally buy. Instead, they start by finding the cheapest product on the shelf. So, they will ask themselves “Can I afford to go to the product I would normally buy? Or do I want to try something different or actually do I just go with the cheapest product that’s on the shelf?”

Photo Credit: Daria Strategy on Unsplash

For Virtual Store Trials, these questions translate into making it clear for customers how to find the products that have the most value to them. “My hope – and it is still a work in progress – is that we’re making that value equation really clear for shoppers and we still need to keep doing a lot more of that. “

Photo credit: Virtual Store Trials 

Photo credit: Adriaan Terblanche on Unsplash

Author: Karen Fong

Karen Fong is a Singapore-based writer and editor who has previously spent time in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Canada. She writes parenting, lifestyle and travel content and has worked with publications including The Singapore Women’s Weekly, DestinAsian, Travel+Leisure Southeast Asia and Prestige Hong Kong.

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