A new report from Technomic forecasts a sluggish 2025 in the burger, sandwich, and pizza categories, while sales growth at chicken, Mexican, and coffee concepts are expected to remain relatively stout.

The market research firm predicts the annual sales volume across all top 1,500 chain restaurants will reach $478 billion this year, representing a 2.8% increase on a nominal basis. By comparison, 2024’s sales grew by 3.1%, marking the industry’s lowest annual increase throughout the past 10 years aside from 2020’s pandemic-influenced 8% decline.

The five-year annual rate prior to 2025 was 5.6%.

Still, some bright spots have emerged, including the chicken category, projected to grow 6.9%. This is compared to about 9% last year.

Sales at Mexican restaurants are expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025, versus 8.6% in 2024. The one category expected to outpace last year is coffee/beverage, with an expected 4.4% increase versus about 3.3% last year.

Otherwise, the forecast looks rather dim, with the burger sector projected to grow by just 0.4%, the sandwich sector projected to grow by just 0.3%, and the pizza sector projected to fall by 0.2%. These three categories remain stagnant after growing combined sales by less than 1% in 2024.

This forecast has been echoed throughout the past couple of months as more restaurant companies have sounded the alarm on consumer behavior. The National Restaurant Association recently cautioned that the economic expansion experienced throughout the past few years is “starting to show signs of fatigue,” including a slowdown in job growth in recent months.

“All told, the economic signals remain mixed, and this likely reflects the heightened degree of uncertainty among both consumers and businesses. Until the fog clears, the economic outlook will be somewhat muted,” the association notes, projecting “somewhat dampened growth” throughout the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

Most of the industry’s pullback is coming from lower-income consumers. Higher-income consumers, with an annual income of $100,000 or more, continue to drive restaurant growth. According to the association, this demographic represents a higher share of total households than ever, at 43%.

“Growth in the number of higher-income households is a positive sign for restaurants, as this demographic group represents a majority of spending in the industry,” the association noted.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, households with incomes of $200,000 or higher are responsible for 24% of total food-away-from-home spending, while households with incomes between $100,000 and $199,999 represent 35% of industry spending. Taken together, households above $100,000 are responsible for nearly six in 10 dollars spent at restaurants, despite accounting for just 43% of all U.S. households.